"No One Saw This Coming": Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models (Bezemer)
Bezemer's independent survey of who publicly anticipated the 2008 crisis and why: the ~dozen analysts with documented, reasoned calls all used accounting/flow-of-funds models rather than equilibrium models — the outside validation the wiki's cycle pages cite for Harrison's and Foldvary's prediction
Summary
Dirk Bezemer (University of Groningen) assembled the documented public record of who anticipated the 2008 credit crisis in advance, with reasoning — requiring a public prediction, an account of the mechanism, and a timeline. His roughly a dozen qualifiers (including Fred Harrison and Fred Foldvary) shared a common feature: accounting / flow-of-funds models tracking credit and asset markets, against the equilibrium models that dominated policy.[1] MPRA Paper 15892 (June 2009); the analysis also circulated as a University of Groningen working paper and in a VoxEU column.[1][2]
This page de-references the citation carried by the cycle narrative and the 18.6-year-cycle research page: Bezemer is the independent, non-Georgist auditor of the prediction record — which is exactly why the wiki cites him rather than the predictors' own retrospectives. Stub pending a full read: [VERIFY: the exact inclusion list and criteria wording on direct read of the MPRA text.]
See Also
- Narrative: Land Speculation Causes Boom and Bust
- Progress & Poverty's 18.6-year cycle record
- Harrison, Boom Bust — one of the audited predictions
Sources
- Dirk J. Bezemer, "'No One Saw This Coming': Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models," MPRA Paper 15892, June 2009. MPRA · IDEAS — used for thesis, method, and venue (A/B-claims).
- Dirk J. Bezemer, "'No one saw this coming' – or did they?" VoxEU/CEPR column. CEPR — the author's summary (A-claim).