Hope Value

Overview

Hope value is the portion of a land parcel's market price that reflects the prospect — short of an actual granted permission — that the site will later receive planning permission for a more valuable use, rather than the value of its current, permitted use.[1] It is closely related to the value uplift a betterment levy attempts to capture once permission is actually granted. Formally, hope value is the gap between a site's market value and its existing-use value; it rises as the prospect of consent becomes more likely, for example once a local plan identifies the site for development or nearby comparable land is granted permission.[1] Fred Harrison's The Power in the Land (1983) uses the term in discussing how the asking prices UK landowners hold out for during the withholding phase of the land speculation cycle already price in anticipated future consents, part of what Harrison calls the "veil of secrecy" around true land-market values.[2]

Hope value matters practically in compulsory purchase law: UK compensation rules have historically required valuers to include hope value in the price paid to landowners whose land is compulsorily acquired, which Georgist critics argue effectively pays speculators for a planning gain the public itself created. The UK's Levelling-up and Regeneration Act 2023 introduced a power allowing certain public bodies to obtain a direction disapplying hope value from compensation in specified compulsory-purchase cases, in force in England from April 2024.[3]

See Also

• Betterment Levy — a tax mechanism aimed at capturing planning-driven land value uplift, the same value hope value anticipates
• Land Speculation — the broader behavior of holding land for anticipated future value gains
• Unearned Increment — the general concept of publicly-created land value gains accruing to private owners
• Town and Country Planning Act 1947 — the UK planning-permission regime whose grants create the prospect hope value anticipates

Sources

1. UK Government, "Compulsory purchase compensation: Power to remove hope value," GOV.UK guidance (factsheet published 3 October 2024) — gov.uk/guidance/compulsory-purchase-compensation-power-to-remove-hope-value — used for the definition of hope value and the 2023 Levelling-up and Regeneration Act reform. Direct-fetch confirmed 2026-07-11: "When assessing the open market value of land compulsorily purchased, account may be taken of values attributable to the prospect of planning permission being granted on the land in the future. This is often referred to as 'hope value'"; and "In the Levelling-up and Regeneration Act 2023, a power was introduced to allow for the assessment of compensation for the value of land taken by compulsory purchase to ignore values attributable to the prospect of planning permission ('hope value') in certain circumstances."
2. Fred Harrison, The Power in the Land: An Inquiry into Unemployment, the Profits Crisis and Land Speculation (Universe Books / Shepheard-Walwyn, 1983), Ch. 3, p.37 — discovery source book; used for the term's appearance in Harrison's account of UK land-market secrecy and speculative asking prices.
3. Winckworth Sherwood LLP, "'Hope value' of planning permission could now be ignored in some Compulsory Purchase Orders" — wslaw.co.uk/blog/hope-value-of-planning-permission-could-now-be-ignored-in-some-compulsory-purchase-orders — used for the April 2024 in-force date of the reform.