#1 of 10 Strategic Forecasts for Coming Years: Vanishing Jobs
|December 22, 2013||Posted by Staff under Editorials|
Daryl Plummer, a Gartner analyst at the research firm’s Symposium ITxpo: “What we’re seeing is a decline in the overall number of people required to do a job.” Plummer points to a company like Kodak, which once employed 130,000, versus Instagram’s 13.
Gartner sees social unrest movements, similar to Occupy Wall Street, emerging again by 2014.
Tom Seitzberg, director of international IT operations for Genomic Health in San Francisco: “If you get just a top level, a small amount of very rich people, and a very large piece of very poor people, it leads to social unrest.”
By 2016, the 3D printing of tissues and organs, called bioprinting, will cause a global debate. Said Plummer: “If you start printing products, distribution systems change, where the work is done changes.”
By 2018, 3D printing will result in the loss of at least $100 billion a year in intellectual property globally. This could be particularly hard on a small business. “It’s now easy to steal an entire business,” said Plummer.
By 2017, more than half of consumer goods manufacturers will get 75% of their consumer innovation and R&D capabilities from crowd-sourcing. Companies are already soliciting customer feedback in product design and direction.
By 2020, imagine training your replacement, a machine, to take over your job. Revenues earned by IBM from Watson, the Jeopardy-playing supercomputer, will account for 1.5% of IBM revenues by the end of 2015, and 10% by 2018.
Ed. Notes: In the past, vanishing jobs has meant some unrest but also the creation of other jobs, such as paper-pushing and salesmanship — not necessarily the most useful jobs but they do pay the bills.
One thing you can say with certainty — since it has always played out before — is that techno-progress will push up land values, as it has done in Silicon Valley. Higher site values can either widen the widening income gap or be a boon for all humanity. All people need do is recover those values — via taxes, fees, leases, dues — and disburse them back to citizens as a dividend.
Getting a fair share of our common heritage — which both land and knowledge are — should not only keep the peace but also liberate humans from so much concern about all things materialistic, letting us return to the lifestyle of hunter / gatherers. Such a rebirth could become the best blessing of progress.